2024 GHG Report

Read the 2024 GHG Emissions Report here

Executive Summary

In 2023 greenhouse gas, GHG, emissions attributed to the residents, businesses and institutions of Durham Region are estimated at 29.8 Mt CO2e, or about 39.5 tonnes per person. This is more than double last year’s estimate of 11.9 Mt CO2e, or 16.01 tonnes per person for 2022. Durham Region’s emissions of course did not double in just one year. Rather, what is provided in this year’s inventory is a more comprehensive accounting of all emissions, upstream of Durham (Scope 3), those emissions that took place in Durham in 2023 (Scopes 1 and 2), and emissions that are likely to be emitted downstream in future from activities that took place in Durham in 2023 (Scope 3).

Consistent with The Atmospheric Fund (TAF) inventory, Durham Region’s emissions, across constant categories, increased by about 1.9 percent 2022 to 2023. To meet Canada’s, and Durham Region’s, targets, emissions need to decline by 3 percent per year, each year to 2050 (therefore Durham Region’s GHG emissions are almost 5 percent above stated target).
The inventory in this report is consistent with global best practices (Global Protocol for Communities and ISO 14064) and is one of the world’s most comprehensive for a community. The inventory is provided not as tool for chagrin or blame, but to better understand the scale and complexity of Durham Region’s goal of being net-zero by 2050 (no unabated GHG emissions). The inventory also highlights how Durham’s mitigation efforts need to be lead locally, but undertaken within a provincial, national and global framework.

Like the Government of Canada, this assessment defines ‘net-zero’ as the economy either emits no greenhouse gas emissions or offsets its emissions. And like Canada, Ontario, and most of the rest of the world, the Region of Durham is not on track to meet net-zero targets. A credible path to net-zero by 2050 remains elusive.

Durham Region is in good company. Several partner municipalities (e.g., Clarington, Whitby, Pickering) institutions (e.g., Ontario Tech University, separate and public-school boards) and businesses have also set net-zero targets. These are consistent with the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act (CNZEAA), adopted by the Parliament of Canada in June 2021.
The Region of Durham may feel it is ‘swimming upstream’ in its efforts to reduce GHG emissions. For example, Ontario’s CO2 emissions from electricity generation increased by 30 percent from 2015 to 2023 and are on track to double again before 2050. The Region has no reasonable means to oppose this increase (and is already a strong supporter of low-carbon electricity by serving as host for Pickering and Darlington nuclear power stations). Also in 2023, after intense lobbying by Enbridge and some area municipalities, Ontario’s Minister of Energy took the unprecedented step of overruling the Ontario Energy Board’s decision to shift natural (fossil) gas connection costs upfront to encourage more energy efficient choices. Enbridge will continue to amortize these costs over 40 years (well after municipal, provincial and federal governments have claimed that they will be net-zero). Emissions from natural gas continue to rise, with no credible plan for mitigation.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Durham Region to achieve net-zero goals is the apparent apathy of Canadians, and others, to reduce GHG emissions. Canadians are the only major high-income country that has seen emissions increase since 1990. Support for a consumer price on carbon (an approach shown to be among the most cost-effective, and fair, ways to reduce emissions) has waned to the point where it is likely to be discontinued (with no practical option to replace it).
Efforts are considerable and the pace is increasing, however locally and globally, our collective progress is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goal of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5o C above pre-industrial values, nor even the minimum ‘safe’ target of limiting temperature increases to below 2o C. The UN finds that climate policies currently in place point to a minimum 2.8o C temperature rise by the end of this century.

As climate changes continue to intensify, the Region of Durham, residents, businesses and institutions, will need to redouble adaptation efforts. For example, the Durham Region Health Department’s 2024 Climate Change and Health report provides a comprehensive and credible menu of suggested policies and actions.

There is however considerable good news. GHG emissions in many countries have peaked. The US in 2010, and China’s are expected to peak in 2025. Canada’s emissions may have peaked in 2005, although they are increasing about 2 percent per year post-COVID (mainly due to oil and gas development). Global GHG emissions are projected to peak within the next decade.

Clear GHG mitigation priorities continue to exist for Durham Region.

These include:
•Shift to low-carbon integrated mobility (far fewer single occupant vehicle trips, especially in internal combustion engine vehicles);
•Redesign neighbourhoods to be far less reliant on car access; Phase out natural gas for space heating (urge provincial adoption of bans on natural gas in new neighbourhoods, similar to Vancouver and Montreal);
•Shift personal purchasing practices, e.g., fewer flights and cruises, eat less meat (especially beef), emphasise waste minimization (especially food waste);
•Continue to pursue, and expand, programs such as building retrofits and the Durham Community Energy Plan.